Today · 5:05 PM CT
Value
Recommended bet
Moneyline-118
Kelly stake · $100 units2.8% of bankroll
Live record · MLB 2026 · NFL from Week 1
Bet the number,
not the narrative.
Model probabilities against live sportsbook odds — every MLB day, every NFL week. Each pick shows its edge, break-even and Kelly stake, and is graded against the closing line.
In season · daily
MLB Value Bets
Moneyline · Totals · Run line · Props
Launching · weekly
NFL Value Bets
Spread · Totals · Moneyline
Verified record● Live
—of MLB picks beat the closing line
—Avg CLV
—Picks graded
—Significance
Every pick timestamped before game time. NFL record publishes from Week 1 — never projected.
What you get
A pick that shows its work.
Every pick comes with the full model breakdown — not a team name and an arrow. You see the edge, the Kelly stake, the reasoning, and the factors that drove the call.
- Edge %
- how mispriced the market is vs. the closing line
- Kelly stake
- how much to bet, not just which side
- Reasoning
- starter or QB matchup, weather, injuries, rest, line movement
- Tier
- signal strength relative to our threshold
Game picksMLBNFL
ML · Totals · Run line · Spread
Player propsMLB
Hits · TB · RBIs · Ks · Outs
HR LabMLB
Elite · Strong · Solid · Lean
Sample picks
Sharp value bets
Fresh every morning by 10 AM CT.
View:
8 picks generated today · 2 free (Moneyline only)
— More picks hidden
8 picks today. You're seeing 2.
Pro unlocks Totals and Run Line — both markets independently beat the closing line at a statistically significant rate, same as Moneyline.
All picks, every market, MLB & NFL · Player Props + HR Lab · Kelly sizing + reasoning · Line movement alerts
$29.99/mo
cancel anytime
Data in. Fair odds out. Four steps, every slate.
Most services predict winners. We price the gap between what the market implies and what the model believes — and ship only when that gap clears +5%.
01
Ingest
Every slate
Play-by-play data per sport — park, weather, injuries, rest, officials, live line movement — cleaned before first pitch or kickoff.
02
Model
Per-sport XGBoost
Separate models for MLB and NFL produce win probabilities, totals and margins the market hasn't fully priced in.
03
Price
+5% min. edge
Probabilities convert to fair American odds. Only a real gap over the closing line ships as a pick.
04
Deliver
10 AM CT / Tue
MLB daily by 10 AM CT, NFL Tuesday through kickoff — full reasoning and a Kelly-sized stake on every card.
Walk-forward only
no random splits, no leakage
CLV-graded
vs. the sharpest books at close
Kelly-sized
fractional stake on every pick
Retrained monthly
each sport, in season
Track record
Every pick, graded against the close.
Every pick is timestamped before game time and posted publicly — wins, losses, everything. No selective memory, no retroactive edits. NFL is held to the same standard from Week 1.
MLBLive
—of picks beat the closing line
Moneyline—%0 picks
Totals (O/U)—%0 picks
Run Line—%0 picks
NFLLaunching
Week 1record starts at kickoff
Same CLV standard as MLB, same public log, graded against real closing odds. Spread · Totals · Moneyline — numbers post here weekly, earned, never projected.
Verified against closing odds
The same picks you'd have received as a subscriber — checked against real closing odds, tracked publicly.
$29.99/mo · cancel anytime
One plan. Both sports.
No credit card to start · cancel anytime
Plan
Free
$0
Pro
$29.99/mo
or $14.99/wk
Picks per slate
2 (Moneyline)
Unlimited, all markets
MLB markets
—
Moneyline · Totals · Run line
NFL markets
—
Spread · Totals · Moneyline
Player Props (MLB)
—
✓
HR Lab (MLB)
—
✓
Kelly stake sizing
—
✓
Line movement signals
—
✓
Pick history
7 days
90 days
Start free, no card required. Upgrade whenever you're ready for full markets and both sports.
Members
The model reasoning is what sets this apart. I understand why I'm betting a game, not just following a number. Up 9 units since April.
I'm naturally skeptical of these services. Walk-forward validation, CLV benchmarking against the major books — this is the right methodology, and the results back it up.
Sizing bets properly is half the game and most services ignore it. A Kelly recommendation on every pick changed how I run my bankroll.
Community
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